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Feb 12, 2026
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SHORT
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Cushman & Wakefield posted their "biggest drops since March 2020." The Real Estate services sector is being hit by a dual narrative: AI disrupting white-collar office demand (less need for space) and the macro reality of high interest rates/refinancing walls. SHORT as the sector faces structural headwinds. Unexpected drop in interest rates stimulating commercial real estate activity. |
Bloomberg Markets
Trump Tariffs Face House Rebuke | Balance of ...
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Feb 12, 2026
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LONG
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Cisco beat revenue estimates ($15.6B) and the CEO stated the company is "uniquely positioned to deliver the trusted infrastructure needed... to power the AI era." The market is rotating out of "AI Losers" (software that gets replaced) into "AI Winners" (infrastructure that powers the replacement). Cisco is successfully rebranding from legacy networking to essential AI plumbing. LONG as a legacy tech turnaround play on AI capex. Enterprise spending slowdown outside of AI verticals. |
Bloomberg Markets
Trump Tariffs Face House Rebuke | Balance of ...
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Feb 12, 2026
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AVOID
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Despite beating estimates, AppLovin (referred to as "mobile technology marketing firm") and the broader software ETF fell (down 3%). Semenova noted investors are worried about "whether they are strong enough to weather AI disruption." This is a sentiment shift. Good earnings are being sold because the market believes AI agents will render these business models obsolete in the future. The "AI displacement" discount is expanding. AVOID or SHORT on bounces; the market is pricing in existential risk regardless of current cash flow. AI fears prove overblown and these stocks re-rate on strong fundamentals. |
Bloomberg Markets
Trump Tariffs Face House Rebuke | Balance of ...
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Feb 12, 2026
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LONG
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McDonald's posted its fastest sales growth in over two years (6.8% jump in US), explicitly stating that "value meals continue to resonate with cost-conscious consumers." Catherine Edwards provided the macro context: US households are facing "credit defaults at all-time highs." In this environment, consumers trade down from casual dining to value-tier fast food. MCD is capturing this volume. LONG as a defensive play on the weakening consumer wallet. Sticky inflation in food costs squeezing margins despite volume growth. |
Bloomberg Markets
Trump Tariffs Face House Rebuke | Balance of ...
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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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While Tech/Software sold off, the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (RSP) hit a new all-time high. Deutsche Bank reported $62 billion in inflows to non-tech sectors in the first five weeks of 2026 (more than all of 2025). Investors are not leaving the market; they are rotating. The "Golden Age" narrative (Trump administration) combined with sticky inflation/rates favors Value, Industrials, and Cyclicals over long-duration Tech growth. The Equal Weight index captures this rotation perfectly, avoiding the drag from the Mag-7 correction. LONG. This confirms the breadth of the rally is improving, decoupling from the Mega-Cap Tech dominance. A hard landing recession would drag down cyclicals regardless of rotation. |
Bloomberg Markets
Strong Jobs Report Curbs Fed-Cut Bets | Balan...
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Feb 11, 2026
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SHORT
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Software stocks (IGV) fell ~4% and the "Mag Seven" index dropped 1% following the jobs report. Semenova notes a narrative shift: investors are no longer just worried about AI CapEx spending, but are now pricing in "AI coming for different industries... replacing a lot of the companies' business models." This is the "AI Deflation" thesis. If AI agents replace human workers, "seat-based" SaaS pricing models collapse. Companies that charge per user (System of Record) face existential revenue compression. The sell-off is not broad panic; it is a targeted liquidation of legacy tech/software in favor of other sectors. SHORT. The rotation out of software is structural, driven by the realization that AI is deflationary for software revenues. Oversold bounce if tech earnings show resilience in seat retention. |
Bloomberg Markets
Strong Jobs Report Curbs Fed-Cut Bets | Balan...
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